The Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook and Central Banks' Communications

Koji Nakamura and Shinichiro Nagae
Additional contact information
Koji Nakamura: Bank of Japan
Shinichiro Nagae: Bank of Japan

No 08-E-1, Bank of Japan Review Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: Central Banks make policy decisions based on their outlook for economic activity and prices. They pay attention not only to central projections, but also to the projection uncertainty and the balance of risks. Central banks place importance on evaluations of the uncertainty and the balance of risks in their communications. They use various methods suitable to each bank's situation, such as the Bank of Japan's "Risk Balance Chart" published this April. When evaluating the uncertainty of economic projections, the historical forecast error is one reference. The real GDP growth and CPI inflation forecast errors for one year ahead are large in each economy, at about one percent for real GDP growth and 0.5 percent to one percent for CPI inflation.

Date: 2008-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/rev_2008/data/rev08e01.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boj:bojrev:08-e-1

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Bank of Japan Review Series from Bank of Japan Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bank of Japan ().