Disagreement in households' inflation expectations and its evolution

Shusaku Nishiguchi, Jouchi Nakajima and Kei Imakubo
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Shusaku Nishiguchi: Bank of Japan
Kei Imakubo: Bank of Japan

No 14-E-1, Bank of Japan Review Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: One of the aspects characterizing inflation expectations is the degree of disagreement or dispersion in such expectations, and dispersion in households' inflation expectations is quite substantial. In phases in which inflation expectations alter, the shape of the distribution of inflation expectations, which reflects the dispersion, may change even when other measures of inflation expectations such as the mean and the median remain unchanged. This article examines how the distribution of households' medium-horizon inflation expectations in Japan evolves over time using the Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior. The analysis shows that during the episode of rising prices since 2013 the expectations distribution has displayed notable changes that were not observed in the phase of rising prices in 2008.

Date: 2014-03-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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