Analysis of private consumption using weather data

Kunihiro Akutsu and Yasutaka Koike
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Kunihiro Akutsu: Bank of Japan
Yasutaka Koike: Bank of Japan

No 19-E-1, Bank of Japan Review Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: Private consumption is affected by temporary disturbance factors such as weather conditions, so it is difficult to assess business conditions. In this paper, we propose "Macro Weather Index" as a comprehensive indicator of Japan's weather conditions, and analyze the effect of weather factors on private consumption. We find that a rise in the amount of precipitation depresses consumer spending and a rise in temperature has a positive effect on private consumption in the summer and a negative influence in the winter. We also find that the effects of weather factors on consumption differ by type as well as by item.

Date: 2019-04-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev19e01

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