Global Disinflation

Yoshikazu Morimoto, Wataru Hirata and Ryo Kato
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Yoshikazu Morimoto: Bank of Japan
Ryo Kato: Bank of Japan

No 2003-06-13, Bank of Japan Research Papers from Bank of Japan

Abstract: A long-term disinflationary trend is widely observed all over the world. Since the mid-1990s, this trend has been more pronounced in industrial countries and many emerging economies in Asia. Japan is faced with a deflation problem. Emerging economies in Asia and several industrial countries, arguably including the United States, have also shown clear disinflationary trends. Hong Kong SAR has been experiencing much deeper and prolonged deflation than Japan. This paper discusses factors contributing to "global disinflation" to reexamine Japan's deflation in a broader context and shed some light on the prospect of the global economy. For this purpose, we try to empirically answer the following questions in the paper. Namely, 1) does the expansion of supply capacity in emerging economies play a significant role in slowing down global inflation, especially in industrial countries? And, if that is the case, 2) why does economic performance differ among countries?

Date: 2003-06-13
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