The Consumption Activity Index: Improvements of Release Contents and Revisions of Compilation Methodology

Koji Nakamura, Ko Miura and Toshitaka Maruyama
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Koji Nakamura: Bank of Japan
Ko Miura: Bank of Japan

No 16-10-07, Bank of Japan Research Papers from Bank of Japan

Abstract: In this paper, we explain improvements of the release contents and revisions of the compilation methodology of the Consumption Activity Index (CAI). Regarding improvements of the release contents, first, we will provide the CAI (adjusting travel balance) one month earlier than the current release schedule by using the immigration statistics. Second, the levels and contributions of the real CAI components (durable goods, non-durable goods, and services) will be released on a monthly basis. Regarding the revisions of the compilation methodology, first, we will change the weight of life insurance expenditure. Second, we will use a new data source for electricity consumption as existing data source is no longer available. These revisions have enabled us to improve the overall performance of the CAI by further increasing its correlation with consumption trends in the Annual Report on National Accounts (ARNA), while maintaining its small short-term fluctuations and high correlations with various confidence indicators.

Keywords: private consumption; business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-10-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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