Revision of the Consumption Activity Index Following the 2020 Base Revision of GDP Statistics

Kohei Takata, Tatsuya Ozaki, Takashi Nakazawa, Kohei Noro and Naoya Kato
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Kohei Takata: Bank of Japan
Tatsuya Ozaki: Bank of Japan
Takashi Nakazawa: Bank of Japan
Kohei Noro: Bank of Japan

No 26-06-30, Bank of Japan Research Papers from Bank of Japan

Abstract: This paper explains the revision of the estimation method for the "Consumption Activity Index (CAI)," which is published by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan periodically. This revision of the CAI is based on the revision of Japan's GDP statistics to the 2020 base and recent structural changes in consumption behavior. The key updates include the following: (1) updating weights of the CAI to be based on the revision of GDP statistics, and (2) reflecting structural changes in household consumption behavior observed since the COVID-19 pandemic by utilizing newly available EC-related data and value-added based related statistics for non-durable goods and service consumption. Additionally, (3) in order to more accurately reflect long-term consumption trends, for periods where Second Annual Estimate values of GDP statistics are available, a level adjustment was performed to align the CAI with GDP statistics on an annual basis.

Keywords: private consumption; business cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-30
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