Identifying Uncertainty Shocks due to Geopolitical Swings in Korea
Seohyun Lee (),
Inhwan So () and
Jongrim Ha ()
Additional contact information
Inhwan So: International Department, The Bank of Korea
Jongrim Ha: The World Bank
No 2018-26, Working Papers from Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea
Using a novel set of instrumental variables in a structural VAR framework, we investigate the economic impact of uncertainty shocks stemming from geopolitical swings in South Korea. We construct robust instrumental variables for examining the variations in uncertainty due to geopolitical swings by observing high-frequency changes in financial asset returns and their volatilities at around the times of such geopolitical events. Our empirical results show that heightened (reduced) geopolitical uncertainty has a negative (positive) impact on macroeconomic outcomes in South Korea. We provide evidence that financial and capital market movements - fluctuations in exchange rates and sovereign spreads, changes in financial asset prices and market volatility, and swings in foreign investment - play important roles in the transmission of uncertainty shocks.
Keywords: Uncertainty; Geopolitical risk; IV SVAR; South and North Korea. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D81 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://papers.bok.or.kr/RePEc_attach/wpaper/english/wp-2018-26.pdf Working Paper, 2018 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bok:wpaper:1826
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Economic Research Institute ().