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Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy to Commodity Exporters and Importers

Myunghyun Kim ()
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Myunghyun Kim: Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea

No 2018-43, Working Papers from Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea

Abstract: This paper studies international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to commodity exporters and importers. After first showing empirically that the shocks have stronger effects on commodity exporters than on importers, I then augment a standard three-country model to include commodities. Consistent with the empirical evidence, the model indicates that an expansionary monetary policy shock to the U.S. increases the aggregate output of commodity exporters by more than that of importers. This is because the increased U.S. aggregate demand triggered by the shock leads to greater U.S. demand for commodities and higher real commodity prices, and thus the exports of commodity exporters increase relative to those of commodity importers. Furthermore, I show that if commodity exporters¡¯ currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, then the U.S. monetary policy shocks have stronger spillovers to commodity exporters and importers. In the event that the U.S. becomes a net energy exporter, the shocks will have weaker effects on commodity exporters and stronger impacts on importers.

Keywords: Monetary policy shocks; International transmission; Commodity exporters; Commodity importers; VAR with external instruments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 F42 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-int, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
Date: 2018-12-18
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http://papers.bok.or.kr/RePEc_attach/wpaper/english/wp-2018-43.pdf Working Paper, 2018 (application/pdf)

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