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Network-Based Measures of Systemic Risk in Korea

Jaewon Choi () and Jieun Lee ()
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Jaewon Choi: Gies College of Business, University of Illinois/College of Business, Yonsei University
Jieun Lee: Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea

No 2020-8, Working Papers from Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea

Abstract: We estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, we perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. Our results show that the measures perform well over our sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, we show that the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. We also provide the recent readings of our measures, both at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. The measures indicate systemic risk is currently not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998. Systemic risk within-chaebols or within-industries overall has not significantly increased in the recent sub-period. In contrast, commonality within the finance industry has not subsided, which we interpret as capturing the interconnectedness endemic to the finance industry, rather than indicating a heightened systemic risk within the banking sector.

Keywords: Systemic risk; Network analysis; Korean economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G14 G23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2020-03-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-net and nep-rmg
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http://papers.bok.or.kr/RePEc_attach/wpaper/english/wp-2020-8.pdf Working Paper, 2020 (application/pdf)

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