Testing Rational Addiction: When Lifetime is Uncertain, One Lag is Enough

Davide Dragone and Davide Raggi

Working Papers from Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna

Abstract: The rational addiction model is usually tested by estimating a linear second-order difference Euler equation, which may produce unreliable estimates. We show that a linear first-order difference equation is a better alternative. This empirical specification is appropriate under the reasonable assumption that people are uncertain about the time of their death, it is based on the same structural assumptions used in the literature, and it retains all policy implications of the deterministic rational addiction model. It is also empirically convenient because it is simple, it allows using efficient estimation strategies that do not require instrumental variables, and it is robust to the possible non-stationarity of the data. As an application we estimate the demand for smoking in the US from 1970 to 2016, and we show that it is consistent with the rational addiction model.

JEL-codes: D11 D12 I12 L66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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