Paths to the Rainforests: Ancestral Beliefs and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Pablo Alvarez-Aragon

Working Papers from Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna

Abstract: Conventional demographic models systematically overestimate fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper proposes a complementary explanation grounded in a prevalent but understudied belief system: ancestors influence the living and seek the continuation of their lineage, into which they may be reincarnated. In this worldview, having children becomes a moral and collective duty, rooted in the spiritual responsibility to ensure the survival of the lineage. Drawing on first-hand data, novel ethnographic information, and historical and contemporary surveys, I document a strong and quantitatively large positive relationship between ancestral beliefs and fertility across contexts and time periods. A simple model in which children are a public good for the lineage rationalizes the patterns observed in the data: the fertility effect of ancestral beliefs is concentrated in patrilineal societies, and a specific form of free-riding emerges among siblings whose children continue the same family line. These findings suggest that high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa rests on moral foundations that standard, externally designed interventions tend to overlook.

JEL-codes: J13 O12 Z12 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1226

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