 The Structure of Multinational Sales under Demand RiskFrancesco Conteduca and Ekaterina Kazakova CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series from University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of demand risk on the location and sales structure of multinational firms. We build a structural model of horizontal FDI with firms that are heterogeneous in terms of risk aversion and productivity. Firms decide on the location of their production plants, the set of countries to serve from these plants, and the volume of sales for each plant. These decisions hinge both on the expected demand for each market and the correlation structure of demand realizations across destination markets. Ceteris paribus, markets that offer better hedging opportunities to multinationals induce larger sales and are more attractive locations for production. We use firm-level data for German multinational companies to estimate firm-specific risk aversion coefficients as well as other model parameters. We find that multinationals are heterogeneously risk averse. Finally, in a counterfactual analysis, we show how a reduction in tariffs for goods imported into China changes the trade flows to the other countries, the sign of the change depending on the correlation structure. Keywords: FDI; Multinational Enterprise; Demand Risk; Risk Aversion; Export Platform (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2018_009 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series from University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany Kaiserstr. 1, 53113 Bonn , Germany. |
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