A Simple, Non-Recursive Model of the Spread of COVID-19 With Applications to Policy

Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series from University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany

Abstract: The paper presents early research on problems that make the use of the basic SIR-model of epidemiology difficult for short- and medium-run policy. The model essentially generalizes the simple exponential model in two respects. First, it considers the structure of the infectious population in more detail and introduces the concept of the "cohort composition kernel" that generalizes the aggregate transmission function and renders the transmission model non-recursive. Second, it shows how policy measures such as testing, social distancing, or quarantine rules can affect this kernel and how this can provide estimates for the impact and lag of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions.

Pages: 22
Date: 2020-05
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_171

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