AI Overviews and Search Intent: Google’s Selective Deployment of Generative AI in Search

Robin Ng () and Michael Wessel ()

CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series from University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany

Abstract: In May 2024, Google introduced AI Overviews (AIO): AI-generated syntheses displayed directly on the Search Engine Results Page (SERP). An AIO can resolve a user’s query on the SERP, speeding up the arrival of monetizable searches, but it is costly to generate and may displace advertising revenue. We model how a platform’s incentive to deploy an AIO depends on the user’s search intent: whether it is exploratory or targeted, and whether it is monetizable. We construct a novel dataset of SERPs for 1,575 search queries in two waves (November 2025 and August 2026). In line with our predictions, deployment is 32.3 percentage points higher for exploratory than targeted queries, and monetization reduces deployment by 13 percentage points. Among exploratory monetizable queries, deployment increases with advertisers’ cost per click, suggesting that the risk of losing advertising revenue may not be a key consideration for AIO deployment. For exploratory searches, deployment is unrelated to how well organic search results resolve the user’s query, rising when these results come from more authoritative sources. Of AIOs that cite sources, 98.1% cite a source from the top 10 organic results. Together, these findings suggest coopetition between Google and publishers that supply content for Overviews while competing with them for users’ attention.

Keywords: Generative AI; search intent; pla􀀄orm design; search adver􀀃sing; zero-click search (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D8 L86 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 67
Date: 2026-04, Revised 2026-10
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