Statistical evidence about human influence on the climate system

Pierre Perron, Francisco Estrada and Benjamín Martínez-López
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Benjamín Martínez-López: Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

No WP2012-012, Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from Boston University - Department of Economics

Abstract: We use recent methods for the analysis of time series data, in particular related to breaks in trends, to establish that human factors are the main contributors to the secular movements in observed global and hemispheric temperatures series. The most important feature documented is a marked increase in the growth rates of temperatures (purged from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and anthropogenic greenhouse gases occurring for all series around 1955, which marks the start of sustained global warming. Also evidence shows that human interventions effectively slowed global warming in two occasions. The Montreal Protocol and the technological change in agricultural production in Asia are major drivers behind the slowdown of the warming since 1994, providing evidence about the effectiveness of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO2 for mitigating climate change in the shorter term. The largest socioeconomic disruptions, the two World Wars and the Great Crash, are shown to have contributed to the cooling in the mid 20th century. While other radiative factors have modulated their effect, the greenhouse gases defined the secular movement in both the total radiative forcing and the global and hemispheric temperature series. Deviations from this anthropogenic trend are shown to have transitory effects.

Pages: 72 pages
Date: 2012-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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