A second chance elsewhere. Re-running for parliament after a close race defeat: UK vs US

Leandro de Magalhaes and Salomo Hirvonen

Bristol Economics Discussion Papers from School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK

Abstract: In parliamentary elections in the UK it is common for candidates to move across constituencies from one election to another. To correctly estimate the effect of holding office (vs. being the runner-up) on future electoral prospects, the outcome variable must include individuals that re-run in other constituencies. In the US we find that very few winners or runners-up re-run in a different district. In the UK we find runners- up move and win elsewhere more frequently than winners in both parties { overall and in close races. Our results reveal a clear difference in the career advantage of holding office between the US and the UK that is almost entirely driven by the ability of UK runners-up to re-run and win elsewhere. Such UK-US difference is not apparent when comparing estimates of the individual incumbency advantage.

Date: 2021-05-06
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