The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion

Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Yanos Zylberberg

Bristol Economics Discussion Papers from School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK

Abstract: We provide new evidence on the income distributional consequences of trade using the New World Grain Invasion in the 19th Century and variation in agroclimatic suitability for wheat across locations within England and Wales. We show that this large-scale agricultural trade shock led to structural transformation away from agriculture and a redistribution of population from rural to urban areas. We develop a quantitative spatial model to rationalize our empirical findings and evaluate the aggregate implications of this international trade shock. We use our model to undertake counterfactuals for the Grain invasion, holding constant other exogenous determinants of economic activity. We find modest aggregate welfare gains combined with much larger income distributional effects, with geography an important dimension along which these income distributional effects occur.

Date: 2025-04-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-geo, nep-his and nep-int
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Related works:
Working Paper: The distributional consequences of trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion (2024)
Working Paper: The distributional consequences of trade: evidence from the Grain Invasion (2024)
Working Paper: The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion (2024)
Working Paper: The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/790

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