Metas de Inflação, Crescimento e Estabilidade Macroeconômica Uma análise a partir de um modelo póskeynesianomacrodinâmico não-linear

Breno Lobo () and José Luís Oreiro
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Breno Lobo: Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília

No 360, Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia from Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of adopting an inflation targeting regime, in which central banks set the short-term interest rate as a response to deviations of inflation from its target and of output from its potential, over economic growth. To this end, we build a non-linear post-keynesian growth model which allows the existence of more than one short-term equilibrium point. We conclude that maintaining a balanced short-term growth path after exogenous shocks depends largely on fiscal policy. Besides that, there are three possible long-term equilibrium configurations, two of which are inherently unstable. Long-term equilibrium stability of the third configuration depends on how central banks respond to deviations on inflation and output. More precisely, we show that a more cautious behavior from the Central Bank in a manner that it only increases short term interest rates when it is really required to do so could help the economy to have a balanced growth-path in the longrun.

Keywords: inflation targeting; economic growth; dynamics; post-keynesian economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E12 E42 E43 E52 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
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