Are Thai Banks Vulnerable?: Structural Analysis of Bank Corporate Loan Portfolio and Implications

Don Nakonthab, Krongkaeo Kritayakirana and Sukonpat Chantapant
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Don Nakonthab: Bank of Thailand
Krongkaeo Kritayakirana: Bank of Thailand
Sukonpat Chantapant: Bank of Thailand

No 2007-03, Working Papers from Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Abstract: This paper attempts to gauge the vulnerability of the Tahi banking system. Our analysis consists of three main areas. First, we use the publicly available information to construct a few basic financial ratios. Following a conventional analysis, we find that the industry is in reasonably good health and stability. Since the corporate loan portfolio constitutes the largest exposure within the banking sector, we focus the second part of our analysis on the structural risk profiles of these corporate loans. Using the Bank of Thailand's system-wide database, we document the default rates and default correlation matrices at both the aggregate (country portfolio) and the disaggregate levels with respect to size and industry, the two crudest but important credit risk drivers of a corporate loan portfolio. Last, we conduct an analysis of the loan pricing and estimate economic profits achieved by different banks in the last four years.

Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2007-03
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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