Challenges in the New Global Macroeconomic and Financial Environment

Don Nakornthab, Jittapa Prachuabmoh, Tientip Subhanij and Kessarin Tansuwanarat
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Don Nakornthab: Bank of Thailand
Jittapa Prachuabmoh: Bank of Thailand
Tientip Subhanij: Bank of Thailand
Kessarin Tansuwanarat: Bank of Thailand

No 2009-03, Working Papers from Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Abstract: This paper presents our forward-looking conjecture of the global macroeconomic and financial environment over the next five years. Among the key unfolding developments we look at are advanced economies' monetary and fiscal policy exits and the remaining global imbalances. According to our analysis, policymakers in emerging market economies should be prepared for a world with slower growth, higher inflation, declining USD trend, and higher costs of capital. The policy challenges identified in this paper include the export-led growth model, public debt management, monetary policy communications, foreign exchange reserve accumulation, and financial markets development.

Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2009-03
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