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Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports

Meredith Crowley (), Oliver Exton and Lu Han ()

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: The renegotiation of a trade agreement introduces uncertainty into the economic environment. We exploit the natural experiment of the Brexit referendum to estimate the impact of uncertainty associated with trade agreement renegotiation. Empirically, we develop measures of the trade policy uncertainty facing firms exporting from the UK to the EU after June 2016. Using the universe of UK export transactions at the firm and product level, we estimate entry (exit) in 2016 would have been 5.0% higher (6.1% lower) if firms exporting from the UK to the EU had not faced increased trade policy uncertainty after June 2016.

Date: 2018-07-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-int
Note: mc865, lh420, oe219
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Working Paper: Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports (2019) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:1839

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