When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak?

Shaoran Li and Oliver Linton

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: We carry out some analysis of the daily data on the number of new cases and the number of new deaths by (191) countries as reported to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Our benchmark model is a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. We use our model to predict when the peak of the epidemic will arise in terms of new cases or new deaths in each country and the peak level. We also predict how long the number of new daily cases in each country will fall by an order of magnitude. Finally, we also forecast the total number of cases and deaths for each country. We consider two models that link the joint evolution of new cases and new deaths.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic; Nonparametric; Prediction; Trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
Note: obl20, sl736
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pub ... pe-pdfs/cwpe2025.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak? (2021)
Working Paper: When will the Covid-19 pandemic peak? (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:2025

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jake Dyer ().