Reverse Political Coattails under a Technocratic Government: New Evidence on the National Electoral Benefits of Local Party Incumbency
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Does the control of local offices benefit parties in national elections when local incumbents are not strategically supported by the central government? To address this question, I study the national electoral effects of local party incumbency in the context of a technocratic central government instituted following an unexpected tragic event that forced the resignation of the previous government. Using a regression discontinuity method applied to mayoral races in Romania, I document that the control of local offices causally generated significant vote share premia in the 2016 parliamentary ballot - estimated at 10-11 percentage points, or roughly one fourth of the dependent variableâ€™s mean. My results show that the affiliation of local incumbents can be consequential for parliamentary power absent a contemporaneous party alignment linking local and central governmental forces.
Keywords: Central and Local Governments; Reverse Coattails; Local Incumbency; Clientelism; Political Parties; Elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D73 H50 H72 H77 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:2121
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