Forecasting the Growth in Consumers' Expenditure: The Treasury Model

Steven Cook

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: Using Treasury forecasts of the growth in real total consumers' expenditure a number of issues in macroeconomic forecasting are addressed. By restricting attention to a single variable, a more detailed examination is provided than is otherwise possible, thus complementing more general studies. The analysis includes, inter alia , the comparison of forecasts of differing horizons, tests for rationality and unbiasedness, and an examination of the link between forecasting and economic policy. The period chosen over which to perform this analysis proves to be particularly interesting, capturing several booms and slumps, including the boom of the late 1980s, the OPEC oil price shocks and major changes in economic policy.

Date: 1997-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:9727

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