The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the US Business Cycle
Joshua Brault () and
Hashmat Khan ()
No 18-03, Carleton Economic Papers from Carleton University, Department of Economics
We document novel shifts in the lead-lag properties of the US business cycle since the mid-1980s that have gone unnoticed in contemporary research. Specifcally, (i) the well-known inverted-leading-indicator-property of real interest rates has completely vanished; (ii) labour productivity switched from leading positively to lagging negatively over the cycle; (iii) Labour input measures shifted from lagging labour productivity positively to leading negatively; (iv) Unemployment rate shifted from lagging productivity negatively to leading positively. Many contemporary business cycle models produce counterfactual cross-correlations. Determining the underlying sources of these shifts in the lead-lag properties is challenging yet a promising direction for future research.
Keywords: Business Cycles; Cross-Correlations; DSGE Models; Interest Rates; Productivity; Hours; Employment; Unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Published: Carleton Economic Papers
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:car:carecp:18-03
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