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Predicting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada and the US

Ba Chu () and Shafiullah Qureshi ()
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Ba Chu: Department of Economics, Carleton University,
Shafiullah Qureshi: Department of Economics, Carleton University,

No 20-05, Carleton Economic Papers from Carleton University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Our proposed time series model with the quartic trend function predicts that the peak of confirmed coronavirus cases has passed in Canada and the US while the end period of the pandemic will come around June 2020 in the best scenario and till the end of 2020 in the worst scenario. Both the bootstrap distance-based test of independence and the XGBoost algorithm reveals a strong link between the coronavirus case count and relevant Google Trends features (defined by search intensities of various keywords that the public entered in the Google internet search engine during this pandemic).

Keywords: COVID-19; prediction; machine-learning; google trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2020-05-04, Revised 2020-05-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big and nep-cmp
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Published: Carleton Economics Papers

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