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Projecting the Need for Formal and Informal Aged Care in Australia: A Dynamic Microsimulation Approach

Binod Nepal, Laurie Brown (), Simon Kelly (), Richard Percival, Phil Anderson, Ruth Hancock and Geetha Ranmuthugala
Additional contact information
Laurie Brown: NATSEM, University of Canberra
Richard Percival: NATSEM, University of Canberra
Phil Anderson: Australian Institute for Health and Welfare
Ruth Hancock: Health Economics Group, University of East Anglia
Geetha Ranmuthugala: Australian Institute of Health Innovation, University of New South Wales

No 11/07, NATSEM Working Paper Series from University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling

Abstract: With the rapid ageing of the Australian population and the growth in the number of older persons and years likely to be lived with disability, the need for and provision of aged care have become one of the central themes of the public policy debate. This paper discusses the construction of a dedicated Aged Care Module built within the large dynamic microsimulation model APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulator). APPSIM is based on the one per cent sample of the 2001 Australian population census and allows simulation of various life cycle events at individual and household levels through to 2051. The Aged Care Module was designed to specifically simulate low and high care needs and the use and costs of informal and formal home and community and residential age care services, building on information on a range of variables including age, gender, disability level, living arrangements and socio-economic status. The methods for imputing baseline data and transition equations for projecting future care needs will be outlined. The number of older Australians likely to need the different types of aged care will be compared with the projected supply of corresponding care places to estimate unmet need for aged care services at the national level over the next 40 years.

Keywords: aged care; Dynamic microsimulation modelling; APPSIM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2011-06
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