The Outlook for Credit in the Irish Economy

Reamonn Lydon (), Kieran McQuinn, Martin O'Brien () and Martina Sherman
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Martina Sherman: Central Bank of Ireland

No 01/EL/11, Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: This note presents estimates of the likely credit requirements of different sectors of the economy over a short-term horizon to 2013. The measure of credit “demand” used in the analysis is the stock of outstanding loans to the Irish private sector from the resident banking sector. The results indicate a substantial fall in the amount of loans outstanding by 2013, the bulk of which is contained within Property (construction and real estate) and Personal Mortgage lending. Despite the projected fall in the amount of outstanding credit allocated to Mortgage lending, as a sector it is expected to continue to account for the majority of outstanding loans to the Irish private sector.

Date: 2011-04
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