Fiscal Compact - Implications for Ireland

Laura Weymes and Colin Bermingham
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Laura Weymes: Central Bank of Ireland
Colin Bermingham: Central Bank of Ireland

No 09/EL/12, Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: This note examines the longer term implications for Ireland of changes to EU budgetary rules embodied in the Fiscal Compact. On the basis of fiscal projections to 2015, it presents illustrative scenarios showing the on-going correction in the budgetary position post-2015 needed to support compliance with these new rules. Using a newly developed fanchart modelling approach, it examines the near-term uncertainty around future fiscal outturns, demonstrating the budgetary implications which could arise were growth to diverge from its currently projected path. The fanchart methodology demonstrates graphically the degree to which fiscal outcomes depend jointly on exogenous shocks and policy decisions.

Date: 2012-09
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