New Risks and Old Problems: The Uncertain Outlook for Irish Agriculture

Thomas Conefrey

No 10/EL/19, Economic Letters from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Irish farming faces an uncertain outlook. The imminent risk of a damaging Brexit outcome looms large over the sector, compounding long-running concerns over low incomes. This Economic Letter assesses the recent economic performance of Irish agriculture in light of the current challenges. The analysis shows that beef and sheep farms (around 7 out of every 10 farms) face significant viability challenges and are heavily reliant on direct payments. Around one third of all farms are classified as economically vulnerable. Any future negative shock – even one less material than Brexit – would further expose the underlying weaknesses in the sector. In relation to Brexit, our analysis suggests that the negative impact on Irish farming will not be evenly distributed. With a greater dependence on low-margin beef farming, the West, Mid-West and Midland regions are both less resilient – and more exposed – than the South and East.

Date: 2019-09
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