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Household Resilience to Current Income and Cost-of-Living Shocks

Anuj Pratap Singh and Fang Yao
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Anuj Pratap Singh: Central Bank of Ireland
Fang Yao: Central Bank of Ireland

No 10/SI/25, Central Bank Staff Insights from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Household balance sheets have strengthened since 2018 and are projected to remain resilient under a baseline scenario for the domestic economy. In an adverse scenario where interest rates and the cost-of-living increases, the share of mortgages at risk could rise modestly relative to the 2024 level, from 6.4 to 8.7 per cent. Despite current levels of resilience, there is still a group of lower-income households that are more vulnerable. Under this particular adverse scenario, the share of mortgages at risk in the bottom third of income distribution (representing around 7.6 per cent of the share of mortgages) is 35 per cent.

Date: 2025-11
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