Nowcasting Euro Area Inflation

Joe Marlow and Dilan Aydin
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Joe Marlow: Central Bank of Ireland
Dilan Aydin: Central Bank of Ireland

No 10/SI/26, Central Bank Staff Insights from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: This insight introduces a toolkit that integrates national-level macroeconomic, survey, commodity, and financial data to provide timely estimates of headline HICP inflation in the euro area. The toolkit is updated on a weekly basis and provides detailed breakdowns of how new data flows drive nowcast revisions, enabling transparent and informed policymaking. The model successfully identifies evolving inflationary pressures through frequent updates, as demonstrated by the March 2026 case study of energy price-driven inflation.

Date: 2026-07
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