Household Exposure to Flooding

Paul Kilgarriff and Tamanna Adhikari
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Paul Kilgarriff: Central Bank of Ireland
Tamanna Adhikari: Central Bank of Ireland

No 4/SI/26, Central Bank Staff Insights from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Cumulative risk over a 30-year mortgage is substantial: Households with a high likelihood of flooding (a 10% annual probability) face a 96% cumulative probability of experiencing at least one flood event over the term of the mortgage. Flood exposure will intensify under future climate scenarios: Under a future climate scenario (mid-range future scenario), the number of households in high-likelihood flood zones rises by about 50%: from ~50,000 today to ~78,000 by 2100. This 78,000 represents ~4% of total households in Ireland. Long-term mortgage exposure is significant: Between 6,450 and 36,700 mortgaged households (1.2% to 6.9% of all mortgaged households) are located in high-likelihood flood zones. Geographic concentration varies widely: Just five counties (Clare, Louth, Cork, Limerick and Dublin) account for 70% of the estimated total number of households exposed to high likelihood flooding.

Date: 2026-05
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