Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?

Gerard O'Reilly and Karl Whelan ()

No 4/RT/04, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the Euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to one, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New-Keynesian Phillips curve.

JEL-codes: E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2004-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time? (2005)
Working Paper: Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time? (2005)
Working Paper: Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time? (2004)
Working Paper: Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time? (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/04

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