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Non-Tariff Barriers and Goods Trade: a Brexit Impact Analysis

Stephen Byrne and Jonathan Rice

No 6/RT/18, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: This paper estimates the potential loss in trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom arising from increases in non-tariff barriers following the UK’s exit from the European Union. Using a difference gravity specification, we estimate a 9.6 per cent decline in trade flows between the UK and Ireland from an increase in border waiting times. This equates to a 1.4 per cent decline in total Irish exports and a 3.1 per cent decline in total Irish imports. We also present evidence of heterogeneity in the exposure (measured by time-sensitivity) across different types of goods, with beverages,fresh foods and raw materials being most exposed. For trade in fuels, chemicals and imperishable foods we do not find evidence of an effect from an increase in time.

Keywords: Brexit; Non-tariff Barriers; International Trade; Gravity Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E5 G01 G17 G28 R39 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int and nep-mac
Date: 2018-05
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https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/pub ... d-rice).pdf?sfvrsn=4 (application/pdf)

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