Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation

Antonello D'Agostino and Karl Whelan ()

No 8/RT/07, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commerical forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of "naive" benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.

JEL-codes: C53 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2007-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation (2008)
Working Paper: Federal Reserve information during the great moderation (2008)
Working Paper: Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation (2007)
Working Paper: Federal Reserve information during the great moderation (2007)
Working Paper: Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation (2007)
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