CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update

Congressional Budget Office

No 55505, Reports from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: CBO regularly evaluates the quality of its two-year and five-year economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy’s actual performance and with the Administration’s forecasts and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.In general, forecasts produced by CBO, the Administration, and the Blue Chip consensus display similar error patterns over time. Because all forecasters faced the same challenges, periods in which CBO made large overestimates typically coincide with periods in which other forecasters made similarly large overestimates.

JEL-codes: C53 H20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-10-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-ore
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