An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023

Congressional Budget Office

No 60664, Reports from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: In this report, CBO assesses the quality of the baseline projections of deficits and debt that it has made each spring from 1984 to 2023. The analysis shows that the agency’s deficit projections have been more accurate in the shorter term than in the longer term and have tended to be overestimates. For years for which comparable projections are available, errors in CBO’s near-term deficit projections were similar to errors made by the Administration. The agency’s longer-term debt projections have tended to be overestimates and have been less accurate than its shorter-term debt

JEL-codes: C53 H50 H60 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-12-05
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