Working Papers

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61186: The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02

Chad Shirley and William Swanson

61171: Understanding the Relationship Between Changes to Federal Fiscal Policy and Near-Term Real GDP Growth: Working Paper 2025-01

Jaeger Nelson and Matthew Wilson

60314: Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05

Jeffrey Schafer

60167: The Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages: Working Paper 2024-04

Evan Herrnstadt and Byoung Hark Yoo

59880: How CBO Uses the ReEDS Model to Analyze Policies in the Electric Power Sector: Working Paper 2024-02

David Adler

59629: Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08

Byoung Hark Yoo

59231: Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07

Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller and Grace Hwang

59056: Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05

Ufuk Demirel and Matthew Wilson

58964: Modeling the Demand for Electric Vehicles and the Supply of Charging Stations in the United States: Working Paper 2023-06

David Austin

58867: The Effects of Work Requirements on the Employment and Income of TANF Participants: Working Paper 2023-03

Justin Falk

58849: The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10

Michael Falkenheim

58764: The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects: Working Paper 2023-04

Daniel Fried

58508: Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09

Bilal Habib and Rebecca Heller

58305: Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans and the Distribution of Family Wealth: Working Paper 2023-02

Nadia Karamcheva and Victoria Perez-Zetune

58168: Flood Damage Avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations: Working Paper 2024-03

Evan Herrnstadt and Jared Jageler

57908: Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04

Congressional Budget Office

57844: A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06

Congressional Budget Office

57843: "Lesser-of" Payment Policies and the Use of Physicians' Services Among Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries: Working Paper 2023-01

Tamara B. Hayford, Xiaotong Niu and Sandra L. Decker

57711: Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07

Congressional Budget Office

57637: Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02

Congressional Budget Office

57582: A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05

Congressional Budget Office

57581: How CBO Estimates the Market Risk of Federal Credit Programs: Working Paper 2021-14

Michael Falkenheim and Wendy Kiska

57580: How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax or Allowance Price: An Update: Working Paper 2021-16

Ronald Gecan

57431: Data and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Firms in CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model, HISIM2: Working Paper 2021-15

Lucas Goodman, Ben Hopkins, Alexandra Minicozzi and Eamon Molloy

57430: Fiscal Substitution in Spending for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2021-13

Sheila Campbell and Chad Shirley

57429: CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effect That Federal Taxes Have on Capital Income From New Investment: Working Paper 2022-01

Paul Burnham and Dorian Carloni

57399: Distributional Effects of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions With a Carbon Tax: Working Paper 2021-11

Dorian Carloni and Terry Dinan

57398: Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03

Jeffrey Schafer

57326: CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10

Daniel Fried

57264: Fair-Value Budgeting: Practical Issues: Working Paper 2021-08

Michael Falkenheim

57255: Governmental Risk Taking Under Market Imperfections: Working Paper 2021-07

Michael Falkenheim

57254: The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08

Mark Lasky

57217: How Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Affect the Federal Deficit: Working Paper 2021-12

Brooks Pierce

57089: Revisiting the Extent to Which Payroll Taxes Are Passed Through to Employees: Working Paper 2021-06

Dorian Carloni

57062: Fair-Value Cost Estimation and Government Cash Flows: Working Paper 2021-05

Michael Falkenheim

57027: Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04

Naveen Singhal

57022: Estimating the Legal Status of Foreign-Born People: Working Paper 2021-02

Julia Heinzel, Rebecca Heller and Natalie Tawil

57021: The Economic Effects of Financing a Large and Permanent Increase in Government Spending: Working Paper 2021-03

Jaeger Nelson and Kerk Phillips

57010: CBO's Simulation Model of New Drug Development: Working Paper 2021-09

Christopher P. Adams

56905: CBO’s Model of Drug Price Negotiations Under the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act: Working Paper 2021-01

Christopher Adams and Evan Herrnstadt

56811: How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program: Working Paper 2020-08

Congressional Budget Office

56612: Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07

John Seliski, Aaron Betz, Yiqun Chen and Ufuk Demirel

56522: Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05

Ufuk Demirel

56505: CBO’s Projection of the Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Economic Output: Working Paper 2020-06

Evan Herrnstadt and Terry Dinan

56420: Federal Reinsurance for Terrorism Risk and Its Effects on the Budget: Working Paper 2020-04

Perry Beider and David Torregrosa

56356: CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03

Ronald Gecan

56337: Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Working Paper 2020-02

Nadia Karamcheva, Jeffrey Perry and Constantine Yannelis

55884: A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01

Nathaniel Frentz, Jaeger Nelson, Dan Ready and John Seliski

55672: A Summary of Selected CBO Reports on Cash and Accrual Budgeting: Working Paper 2019-09

Megan Carroll and David Torregrosa

55659: CBO’s Medicare Beneficiary Cost-Sharing Model: A Technical Description: Working Paper 2019-08

Congressional Budget Office