A Method for Inferring Batting Conditions in ODI Cricket from Historical Data

Scott Brooker and Seamus Hogan

Working Papers in Economics from University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance

Abstract: This paper is part of a wider research programme using a dynamic-programming approach to modelling the choices about the amount of risk to take by batting and bowling teams in One Day International cricket. An important confounding variable in this analysis is the ground conditions (size of ground, nature of pitch and weather conditions) that affect how many runs can be scored for a given amount of risk. This variable does not exist in our historical data set and would regardless be very difficult to accurately observe on the day of a match. In this paper, we consider a way of estimating a distribution for the ground conditions using only the information contained in the first-innings score and the result of the match. The approach uses this information to estimate the importance of ground conditions in the determination of first innings total scores. We assume a functional form for a model of first innings scores and we estimate the parameters of our model using Monte Carlo methods. We test the impact of a significant rule change and we apply our findings to selected matches before and after the new rules came into play.

Keywords: ODI Cricket; Batting Conditions; Nuisance Variable (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2011-12-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/1144.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbt:econwp:11/44

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers in Economics from University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Albert Yee ().