Did China’s Pilot Emissions Trading Scheme Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

Yanxia Yu, Chenfei Qu, Tom Coupé (), Mathilda Featherston-Lardeux, Andreas Loeschel, Arne R. Weiss and Da Zhang
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Tom Coupé: University of Canterbury, https://www.canterbury.ac.nz

Working Papers in Economics from University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance

Abstract: How effective are Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) in reducing carbon emissions? This paper addresses this question using a meta-analysis of 80 primary studies and 732 effect size estimates assessing the impact of China’s pilot ETS, introduced in seven provinces and cities in 2011. Our findings suggest that China’s pilot ETS led to small to medium-sized reductions in CO2 emissions, with estimated reductions ranging from 5.5% to 16.6% compared to a no-ETS counterfactual. Meta-regression and Bayesian Model Averaging analyses further show that the estimated impacts of the ETS vary with the empirical methods employed and the control variables used. The range of estimates we obtain from synthesizing the literature provides policy-makers with an evidence-based expectation of the potential scale of emissions reductions in the initial phase of developing an ETS.

Keywords: Meta-analysis; Emission trading scheme (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2025-03-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbt:econwp:25/04

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