Long-term impact evaluation of early childhood conditions When only short-term outcomes are available

Sharon Picco and Chiara Pronzato

CHILD Working Papers Series from Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA

Abstract: Over the past two decades, socio-economic research has highlighted and empirically demonstrated the importance of investing in early childhood development for long-term life outcomes. In response, governments and foundations have increasingly allocated resources to preschool initiatives, promoting formal childcare, encouraging access to libraries and playrooms, and facilitating parent-child activities aimed at enhancing parenting skills. While the short-term effects of many of these policies are frequently assessed, evaluating their long-term impact remains challenging due to high costs and logistical complexities. How can meaningful insights into long-term effects be derived when only short-term outcomes are available? Adopting the “surrogacy†framework proposed by Athey et al. (2024) and using data from the Millennium Cohort Study (UK), we predict long-term outcomes assuming only short-term outcomes are available, and compare them with the actual ones. This analysis introduces a valuable tool for policymakers and program evaluators, helping to identify key outcome variables for impact assessment and the prediction of long-term effects.

Keywords: long-term policy evaluation; surrogate index; childhood policies; Millennium Cohort Study. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cca:wchild:118

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