Risk Shocks and Housing Markets

Kevin Salyer (kdsalyer@ucdavis.edu), Victor Dorofeenko and Gabriel Lee

No 89, Working Papers from University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for the business cycle. Also, we demonstrate that bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices; as a consequence, the volatility of housing prices is greater than that of output, as observed in the data. The model can also account for the observed countercyclical behavior of risk premia on loans to the housing sector.

Keywords: agency costs; credit channel; time-varying uncertainty; residential investment; housing production; calibration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E4 E5 R2 R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2010-06-06
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https://repec.dss.ucdavis.edu/files/ZG3pRBbaGXChqiRu49QrLqPr/10-11.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Risk Shocks and Housing Markets (2010)
Working Paper: Risk Shocks and Housing Markets (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cda:wpaper:89

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