Beyond GDP: Quantifying Heterogeneous Impact of Climate Change on Social Progress

Naveen Kumar
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Naveen Kumar: Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics

No 370, Working papers from Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between well-being and temperature across 167 countries from 1990 to 2019, employing the Social Progress Index (SPI) as a measure of well-being and social progress. Using a fixed-effects panel data framework, I study temperature impacts on social progress by modelling local and global weather anomalies simultaneously, capturing both within-country temporal and global climate variation. First, a statistically significant negative relationship exists between annual temperature anomalies and well-being, with a 1°C global (local) mean temperature deviation leading to a 0.8068 (0.0929) point decline, respectively. Second, annual precipitation anomalies have no statistically significant effect on the SPI. Third, an increase in temperature anomaly has a more adverse impact in winter and spring than in other seasons. Fourth, poorer regions, hotter climates,global south, and countries with weak institutions are disproportionately affected by temperature deviations. Fifth, the impact of temperature on well-being persists over the medium term, most clearly through the global temperature anomalies. JEL Code: Q13,Q54, Q56

Keywords: Temperature Anomalies; Social Progress Index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 91 pages
Date: 2026-11
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