A Leading Index for India's Exports

Pami Dua and Anirvan Banerji ()

No 1, Occasional papers from Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract: This paper presents a method for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in Indian exports using the 36 country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of major trading partners. These leading indices are developed at the Economic Cycle Research Institute and forecast the onset and end of recessions in overall economic activity in these economies. The results show that the new leading index of Indian exports (in level and growth form) would have anticipated most of the cyclical turns in real exports, the price of exports, and their value over the past 25 years.

Pages: 82 pages
Date: 2001-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cdedse.org/papers/13feb/occassional%20paper%206%20copy.pdf
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.cdedse.org/papers/13feb/occassional%20paper%206%20copy.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://cdedse.org/papers/13feb/occassional%20paper%206%20copy.pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cde:occpap:1

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cdedse.org/

The price is free.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Occasional papers from Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics Delhi 110 007. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sanjeev Sharma ().