The Credit Risk Premium in a Disaster-Prone World

Yanhui Zhu and Laurence Copeland ()

No E2008/13, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: The seminal Barro (2006) closed-economy model of the equity risk premium in the presence of extreme events ("disasters") allowed for leverage in the form of risky corporate debt which defaulted only in states when the Government defaulted on its debt. The probability of default was therefore exogenous and independent of the degree of leverage. In this paper, we take the model a step closer to reality by assuming that, on the one hand, the Government never defaults, and on the other hand, that the .corporate sector. in the form of the Lucas tree owner pays its debts in full if and only if its asset value is sufficient, which is always the case in non-crisis states. Otherwise, in exceptionally severe crises, it defaults and hands over the whole .firm. to its creditors. The probability of default by the tree owner is thus endogenous, dependent both on the volume of debt issued (taken as exogenous) and on the uncertain value of output. We show, using data from both Barro (2006) and Barro and Ursua (2008), that the model can generate values of the riskless rate, equity risk premium and credit risk spread broadly consistent with those typically observed in the data.

Keywords: equity risk premium; default risk; credit spread; leverage; corporate debt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F3 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2008-07, Revised 2008-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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