Fertility versus Productivity: A Model of Growth with Evolutionary Equilibria

James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou

No E2020/13, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: We develop a quantitative model that is consistent with three principal building blocks of Unified Growth Theory: the break-out from economic stagnation, the buildup to the Industrial Revolution, and the onset of the fertility transition. Our analysis suggests that (i) the escape from the Malthusian trap was triggered by the demographic catastrophes in the aftermath of the Black Death, (ii), household investment in children ultimately raised wages despite an increasing population, and (iii) rising human capital, combined with the increasing elasticity of substitution between child quantity and quality, reduced target family size and contributed to the fertility transition.

Keywords: Fertility Transition; Industrial Revolution; English Economy; Economic Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 N13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2020-11
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Journal Article: Fertility versus productivity: a model of growth with evolutionary equilibria (2021)
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