EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Modeling and predicting agricultural land use in England based on spatially high-resolution data

Patrick W. Saart (), Namhyun Kim () and Ian Bateman ()
Additional contact information
Patrick W. Saart: Cardiff Business School, https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/people/view/1025349-wongsa-art-pipat
Namhyun Kim: University of Exeter Business School, http://business-school.exeter.ac.uk/about/people/profile/index.php?web_id=Namhyun_Kim

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Patrick Wongsa-art ()

No E2021/7, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: This paper addresses various statistical and empirical challenges associated with modelling farmers' decision-making processes concerning agricultural land-use. These include (i) use of spatially high-resolution data so that idiosyncratic effects of physical environment drivers, e.g. soil textures, can be explicitly modelled; (ii) modelling land-use shares as censored responses, which enables consistent estimation of the unknown parameters; (iii) incorporating spatial error dependence and heterogeneity, which leads to accurate formulation of the variances for the parameter estimates and more effective statistical inferences; and (iv) reducing the computational burden and improving estimation accuracy by introducing an alternative GMM/QML hybrid estimation procedure. We also provide extensive evidence, which suggests that our approach can construct more accurate land-use predictions than existing methods in the literature. We then apply our method to empirically investigate how the climatic, economic, policy and physical determinants influence the land-use patterns in England over time and spatial space. We are also interested in examining whether environmental schemes and grants have assisted in freeing up land used for arable, rough grazing, temporary and permanent grasslands and converting it to bio-energy crops to help to achieve deep emission reductions and prepare for climate change.

Keywords: Agro-environmental policy; land-use; multivariate Tobit; system of censored equation; spatial model; error component model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C21 C23 C34 Q15 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2021-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-big, nep-ecm and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2021_7.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/7

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Yongdeng Xu ().

 
Page updated 2022-09-30
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/7