How the short run effects of Brexit on trade, investment and GDP have been miscalculated in some recent work

A. Patrick Minford and Zheyi Zhu ()
Additional contact information
Zheyi Zhu: Cardiff Business School

No E2023/1, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: We look for statistically significant effects of Brexit events in UK data relationships. We find evidence of trade disruption by Brexit departure from the single EU market, much as we would expect. However, with investment, we find no statistically significant effects of Brexit. With GDP, inflation and interest rates we find some positive effects due to the fall in the pound. Previous work using weighted averages of selected other countries to mimic UK behaviour is inconsistent with economic theory stressing the key role of idiosyncratic country structure and shocks; it is also vulnerable to selection bias and does not test for the statistical significance of Brexit events, which have occurred in the context of enormous turbulence in the past few years in all economies due to Covid and the Ukraine war, besides accompanying large fiscal and monetary policy fluctuations.

Pages: 12 pages
Date: 2023-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-eec and nep-int
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2023_1.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/1

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Yongdeng Xu ().