Did COVID-19 vaccinations increase GDP growth?

Meng Zhao and Wojtek Paczos
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Meng Zhao: University of Bristol

No E2025/23, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: Yes. We estimate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on economic growth in OECD countries using forecast errors in quarterly real GDP growth. These forecasts were published at the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved or widely anticipated, making them a credible benchmark to identify the economic impact of vaccination. We find that an additional 10 vaccine doses per 100 people in a given quarter leads to 0.5 percentage points higher annualized GDP growth. The effect is stronger when measuring full vaccination: 10 additional fully vaccinated individuals per 100 people lead to a 1.5 percentage point increase in annual growth on average.

Keywords: economic growth; Covid-19; vaccinations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E65 G12 I18 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2025-12
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